"Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? (Whitaker 1990)"Now, this seemingly simple problem does fool the majority of people, even Nobel prize winners, so don't feel too bad, I believed the answer proposed by the book to be wrong too. So I wrote a python script to simulate the game. And believe me, there is a correct answer, it is always better to do one thing or the other: to switch or to stay. Stay tuned tomorrow for the exciting conclusion.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Lets Make a Deal
So, I was reading this book: The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives and it started talking about this game show Lets Make a Deal. Now specifically the book was referring to the Monty Hall Problem:
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment